Xeris Biopharma would turn Cashflow positive EOY 2022 according to RBC (profitable != cashflow positive).
$XERS currently burns ~$25M per quarter and has ~$135M as of 3/31/2021. Assuming a constant rate, we would have another 12 month until June 2022. Xeris must maintain a certain liquidity level though – shortening the runway. The moment Gvoke sales ramp up, additional cash becomes available (~70% of revenue due to COGs). Current consensus for revenues in 2022 is $97M, which would translate in into rougly $35M more cash. Same is true for any sales from Ogluo, but I expect low single $M figures in FY2022 in Europe. Any partnership however would probably include some upfront cash. The expansion of the sales force and staff in general will increase the burn rate however.
$SBBP has $73M as of 3/31/2021 in cash and a burn rate of ~$15M per quarter. Assuming a constant rate, we would have another 12 month until June 2022. The loan agreement allows for another $10M if certain conditions are met. Increasing sales of KEVESYS extend the runway.
Standalone both companies have another 12 month until cash runs out at current cash burn, uppicking sales probably allow for another quarter.
Including sales from RECORLEV (at basically no extra costs) starting Q1 2022 adds another 8-12 weeks imo (normally sales is not exploding but gradually phasing in).
The costs benefits will be ~$50M p.a. and Xeris expects that to realize fully in 2022, of which $28M are redundancies (staff and duplicate costs) as well as $22M avoidance of future costs. Only the $28M are relevant as they are part of the current burn rate.
This elimination of redundancies will cost money as well as the costs of the transaction. All in all those stand at an estimated price of $33M of which $31M will have to be paid out until EOY 2022.
Conclusion: Current runway is probably EOY 2022. Almost enough to get to cashflow positive. Any performance better than my the current available forecasts and we are there.
According to the last 10-Q “…the Company believes its cash resources are sufficient to sustain operations and capital expenditure requirements for at least the next 12 months.” With the possible merger of Strongbridge and Xeris, I have not had a chance to look at the cash burn rate of Stongbridge and Xeris combined along with both cash resources combined.